Oceanic systems have a “longer memory” than atmospheric systems. Thus, a priori, it seems feasible to predict oceanic temperatures realistically and much further ahead than atmospheric weather predictions. However, the prediction is complicated due to variations being governed by processes originating both externally and locally, which operate at different time scales. Thus, both slow-moving advective propagation and rapid barotropic responses resulting from large-scale changes in air pressure must be considered.
According to the expert evaluation based on the analysis of the internal structure of the long-term variations in hydrometeorological parameters, over the next two years (2018–2019), the Atlantic water temperature in the Murman Current is expected to decline slightly but remain typical of warm years.
Due to high temperatures and low sea-ice extent in recent years, the ice coverage is expected to remain below normal.