Conclusion about the state now and in the future

Conclusions about state of the ecosystem (introduction)

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The aim of this subchapter is to summarise key features of the state of the Barents Sea ecosystem and discuss what aspects of the ecosystem are likely to be influenced by anthropogenic impacts. A discussion is also undertaken regarding possible developments of the ecosystem in the future. The chapter takes the ecosystem perspective, and will consequently focus on ecosystem status, function and processes. The anthropogenic driver that currently has the largest documented impact on the functioning of the Barents Sea ecosystem is harvesting.

Effects of climate change

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Studies of how natural decadal and multi-decadal climatic fluctuations have affected marine ecosystems (e.g. Ottersen and Stenseth, 2001; Titov, 2001; Boitsov and Orlova, 2004; Titov and Ozhigin, 2005; Drinkwater, 2006), have provided insight into what can be expected given the suggested continued warming of the Barents Sea (Ellingsen et al., 2008). Historically, an increase in temperature of only 2 ºC has been documented to have significant impacts on oceanographic features (frontal zones, salt and heat budgets, thermohaline circulation) that drive ecosystem structure and function (Renaud et al., 2008).

Interactions and prospects

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The combined effects of climate change and fishing are complicated by complex trophic interactions (see e.g. Hjermann et al. 2007). However, based on the present situation, known trophic interactions and ecosystem effects of fishing and climate change, some possible scenarios can be outlined; these are discussed below. Although a continued warming is likely in the longer term, short term cooling might occur due to natural fluctuations, and medium and long-term prospects may therefore differ.